Situation overview (11 Feb):

  • Mixed strike package: Russian drones and missiles launched in the evening [1]. Ukraine reported Kinzhal missiles were launched; two were shot down, per Kyiv authorities [4].
  • Geographic impacts reported: Dnipropetrovsk Oblast was attacked nearly 40 times, causing two civilian deaths and three injuries [10][11]. In Kharkiv Oblast, a strike on Zolochiv injured two teenagers [7].

Immediate humanitarian and infrastructure effects:

  • Casualties: Two killed and three injured in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast; two teenagers injured in Zolochiv, Kharkiv region [10][11][7].
  • Power grid: Recent Russian air strikes have knocked out up to 10 GW of generation capacity, according to President Zelenskyy, indicating significant strain on electricity supply [8].
  • Water risk (Kyiv): City authorities urged residents to check drinking and technical water stockpiles due to possible water-supply disruptions [14].

Indicators of escalation/operational shift:

  • Employment of advanced missiles: Reported Kinzhal launches (with two intercepted) mark continued use of high-speed strike systems against Ukraine [4].
  • Repeated critical infrastructure targeting: “Latest” strikes degrading up to 10 GW suggest sustained focus on the power grid beyond routine attrition [8].

Ukrainian military/political and allied responses:

  • Operational sustainment: Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky discussed logistics, equipment repair, and evacuation of wounded with Air Assault Troops commanders, indicating efforts to maintain combat effectiveness under ongoing strikes [12].
  • Diplomatic/legal push: Parliament urged the democratic world to accelerate creation of a Special Tribunal to punish Russia [13].
  • International engagement: Munich Security Conference announced President Zelenskyy will head Ukraine’s delegation [5].
  • Domestic governance signal: Zelenskyy said elections require a ceasefire and guaranteed security, denying reports of May polls [6].

Noise to deprioritize/verify:

  • Social commentary on Chinese backing deciding the war’s outcome, attributed to a former MI6 chief via social post, is not operationally relevant to the 11 Feb strike picture and should be treated as opinion pending direct sourcing and context [2].
  • Isolated imagery of road protection nets provides useful context but no immediate impact assessment for 11 Feb strikes [3].

Near-term outlook (24–72 hours):

  • Elevated risk of further evening/night multi-vector strikes, including potential use of advanced missiles and continued pressure on energy infrastructure (monitor for rolling power and water disruptions, especially in major urban centers) [1][4][8][14].
  • Prioritize casualty response and damage assessment in Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv regions; maintain readiness for repairs and rapid evacuation support per ongoing Ukrainian C2 focus [7][10][11][12].